EPIDEMIC DYNAMICS KINETIC MODEL AND ITS TESTING ON THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC SPREAD DATA

A kinetic model has been proposed for the spread of epidemics, describing the dynamics of the variation in the number of disease-free, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases, based on a lag logistic equation. It has been established that this model predicts the possibility of existence of a quasi-steady-state mode of an epidemic in which the number of infected cases is constant due to the balance of the daily increment of infections and recoveries. Conditions have been identifi ed under which such a mode can be a source of the advance of the second epidemic wave. The COVID-19 pandemic data were used to show the possibility of reliable forecasts based on this model of the spread of an epidemic for a period of up to two months.
   
Author:  A. I. Shnip
Keywords:  prediction of epidemics, COVID-19, logistic equation, delayed argument, second wave
Page:  6